Risk Analyzer
Find your safe stake, check if your edge is real, and see how likely a blow-up is.
Account balance
$
Risk per trade
%
Your win rate
%
Broker payout
%
Trades per day
Risk score — Safe
Blends your stake size, edge quality and simulated blow-up odds.
Safe stake
$10
2% of balance
EV per trade
+$0.18
Positive edge
Break-even win rate
54.1%
At 85% payout
Blow-up risk
0%
Over ~30 days
Your edge is mathematically positive
With an 85% payout you must win at least 54.1% of trades just to break even. You are at 55%. Every $10 trade returns $0.18 on average.
Position sizing
Kelly optimal
2.06%
$10.3
Half-Kelly (recommended)
1.03%
$5.15
Kelly is the mathematically fastest growth rate — and it is brutally volatile. Serious traders bet half of it or less. If Kelly says 0%, your edge does not justify any stake.
Losing streak reality check
Flat trades survivable
50
Losses in a row
5 losses in a row
10.6%
Chance today
7 losses in a row
1.5%
Chance today
One simulated month
Avg drawdown 29.5% · 57% of runs profitable
$585
$374
Start30 days
The 2% rule exists for a reason
At 1–2% per trade a normal 8-loss streak costs you around 15% of the account and you trade another day. At 10% per trade the same streak wipes over half of it. Survival first, profit second.