Streak Calculator
The exact odds of hitting a run of wins or losses — the number martingale plans live or die on.
Win rate
%
Streak length (losses in a row)
Trades in the session
Account balance
$
Stake per trade
%
Chance in 100 trades
45.9%
5 losses in a row
Odds right now
1 in 98
Starting from the next trade
Times per session
1.0
Expected occurrences
Longest run expected
4
Losses back to back
Chance builds with every trade
0 → 100 trades
50%
-4%
Trade 0Trade 100
A streak that looks rare on a single trade becomes close to certain over a long session. That is why the line climbs, and why "it has never happened to me" is not a risk plan.
Streak ladder — chance of each run length in 100 trades
What that streak costs you
Stake per trade
$15
3% of balance
Flat-stake damage
-$75
15.0% of account
Balance after
$425
With a martingale ladder the same streak costs far more, because each step doubles. Use the Martingale calculator to size a ladder that survives this many losses.
Streak risk looks manageable
At a 60% win rate the chance of 5 losses in a row over 100 trades is 45.9%. Plan your worst case around 4 in a row, which is what this session will typically produce.