Martingale calculator for binary options
Work out how many martingale steps your balance can genuinely survive, what each step costs, and what a single bad streak does to the account — before you risk real money.
Plan a recovery ladder that your account can actually survive.
Each step is sized so one win recovers every loss plus your base profit — the correct way to martingale on a payout below 100%.
What the martingale calculator does
Martingale means increasing your stake after a loss so a single win recovers everything you lost plus your original target profit. On binary options it is more dangerous than on a 1:1 casino bet, because a typical 80–90% payout means you have to stake more than you lost just to break even on the step.
The calculator above builds the full ladder from your inputs: stake per step, cumulative risk, profit if that step wins, and how much of the bankroll is gone once the step fails. Traders usually discover their 'safe' 5-step plan actually needs 30–60% of the account.
Use it as a survival check, not a profit plan. The number that matters is not the profit column — it is the cumulative risk column and the probability of hitting that streak at your real win rate.
The formula, explained
Stake(n) = ( CumulativeLoss(n-1) + TargetProfit ) ÷ Payout%
- Stake(n)
- — the stake needed on step n to recover everything and still profit
- CumulativeLoss(n-1)
- — the sum of every stake lost so far
- TargetProfit
- — the profit you originally wanted from the sequence
- Payout%
- — broker payout as a decimal — 85% payout is 0.85
Because payout is below 1, each step grows faster than a simple doubling. At 85% payout the true multiplier is roughly 2.18x, not 2x — that difference is what kills accounts on step 6 or 7.
A real set of numbers
| Step | Stake | Total risked | Profit if it wins | Bankroll left if it loses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10.00 | $10.00 | $8.50 | $490 |
| 2 | $21.80 | $31.80 | $8.53 | $468 |
| 3 | $47.40 | $79.20 | $8.09 | $421 |
| 4 | $103.20 | $182.40 | $8.32 | $318 |
| 5 | $224.60 | $407.00 | $8.91 | $93 |
Five losses in a row wipes 81% of the account chasing an $8.50 profit. At a 55% win rate, a 5-loss streak happens roughly once every 55 trades — so it is not a rare event, it is a Tuesday.
When to use it — and when not to
Use it when
- You want to know the maximum ladder depth your balance can survive, not the profit.
- Your broker payout changes between assets and you need the real multiplier for each.
- You are testing a soft martingale (1.5x–1.8x) instead of a full recovery ladder.
- You want to compare martingale risk against flat staking on the same win rate.
Don't rely on it when
- Your win rate is below the breakeven rate for your payout — martingale accelerates a losing edge.
- You are trading during high-impact news, where losses cluster and streaks get longer.
- You cannot fund the full ladder from step one; a half-funded ladder is a guaranteed blow-up.
- You are on a small account where step 4 already exceeds 25% of the balance.
Martingale calculator questions, answered
+Does martingale actually work on binary options?
It works until it doesn't. Every sequence has a high probability of a small win and a small probability of a catastrophic loss, and the expected value is still negative if your win rate is below breakeven. It converts frequent small wins into one rare large loss — the arithmetic does not create an edge.
+How many martingale steps are safe?
As a rule of thumb, cap the ladder where cumulative risk stays under 20% of your bankroll. On most accounts that is 3 steps at full multiplier or 5 at a 1.6x soft multiplier. The calculator shows the exact cut-off for your numbers.
+What multiplier should I use at 85% payout?
1 ÷ 0.85 ≈ 1.18, plus recovery of the prior loss gives about 2.18x. Anything below that means a win no longer recovers the sequence, so you are running a partial recovery — which is fine, as long as you know it.
+Is soft martingale safer?
Yes, materially. A 1.5x multiplier lets you take more steps for the same total risk, but each win only partially recovers the drawdown. It is a slower bleed rather than a cliff.
+Do trading bots use martingale?
Our signal engines do not. They give you a direction and a confidence tier; staking is your decision. If you choose to martingale on top of a signal, size the ladder here first.
Put the numbers to work
Sizing is half the job — the other half is the entry. TradeFather's free signal engines call direction and expiry on Quotex, Pocket Option, Binomo, IQ Option, Olymp Trade and Expert Option, and every tool on this site is free with no subscription.