Trade replay and what-if simulator
Take the trades you actually made, apply a different staking plan, and see the balance curve you would have had.
Same wins, same losses, same order. Only the stake plan changes. See what your money would have done.
Exactly how it happened, trade by trade.
What the trade replay simulator does
Most traders change strategy when they should have changed stake sizing. Replay separates the two: the entries stay identical, only the money management changes, so you can see how much of your result came from each.
Load your journal history, choose a plan — flat, percentage, Kelly fraction or a martingale ladder — and the simulator rebuilds the equity curve trade by trade, including the drawdowns you would have had to sit through.
The usual finding is uncomfortable: the aggressive plan makes more money on paper and includes a 60% drawdown in the middle that no human would have traded through.
The formula, explained
Balance(t) = Balance(t−1) + ( Win ? Stake(t) × Payout : −Stake(t) )
- Flat plan
- — Stake is constant
- Percentage plan
- — Stake = Balance × risk%, so it compounds and de-risks automatically
- Kelly plan
- — Stake = Balance × fraction of the Kelly optimum
- Ladder plan
- — Stake escalates after losses by your chosen multiplier
Judge plans on three numbers, not one: final balance, maximum drawdown, and the longest time spent below the previous peak. The last one is what actually makes people quit.
A real set of numbers
| Stake plan | Final balance | Max drawdown | Worst day | Survivable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat $10 | $1,196 | −6.2% | −$50 | Easily |
| 2% of balance | $1,241 | −7.8% | −$62 | Easily |
| Half Kelly | $1,674 | −23.4% | −$210 | With discipline |
| Full Kelly | $2,410 | −48.1% | −$470 | Unlikely |
| 2.2x martingale | $0 | −100% | −$860 | No |
Identical entries. The staking plan is the difference between a modest gain, a strong year and a dead account.
When to use it — and when not to
Use it when
- You have 50+ logged trades and want to test a different money-management rule.
- You are considering switching from flat staking to percentage or Kelly.
- You want to see what a martingale ladder would have done to your real history.
- You are separating 'bad strategy' from 'bad sizing' after a losing month.
Don't rely on it when
- Your trade history is short — under 50 trades the replay is dominated by luck.
- You would have traded differently under the other plan; replay assumes the same entries.
Trade replay simulator questions, answered
+How is this different from a backtest?
A backtest tests entries against historical prices. Replay holds your entries fixed and tests money management, which is the variable most traders can improve fastest.
+Where does it get my trades?
From the journal on this site, stored locally in your browser. You can also enter a sequence manually to test a hypothetical run.
+Why did the aggressive plan make more but score worse?
Because maximum drawdown, not final balance, determines whether you are still trading the plan when it recovers. A plan you abandon halfway has a real return of whatever it lost before you quit.
+Can I test martingale here?
Yes — and it is the most instructive test on the page, because it shows the exact trade where the ladder ran out of bankroll.
Put the numbers to work
Sizing is half the job — the other half is the entry. TradeFather's free signal engines call direction and expiry on Quotex, Pocket Option, Binomo, IQ Option, Olymp Trade and Expert Option, and every tool on this site is free with no subscription.