ROI simulator for binary options strategies
One backtest is an anecdote. This runs your strategy hundreds of times so you see the whole distribution of outcomes, not the one lucky path.
300 simulated runs of your exact strategy — not one lucky chart.
What the roi simulator does
The mistake in most strategy evaluation is running a single sequence, seeing a profit, and calling the strategy good. With randomness involved, a losing strategy shows a profit on a decent share of runs, and a winning strategy shows a loss on plenty of them.
The simulator above runs many independent sessions using your win rate, payout, stake rule and trade count, then shows you the spread: the median result, the good runs, the bad runs, and how often the account ends underwater.
What you want to see is a median that is comfortably positive and a worst-decile that you could psychologically survive. If the worst 10% of runs would make you quit, the plan is too aggressive regardless of the average.
The formula, explained
EV per trade = (WinRate × Payout × Stake) − ((1 − WinRate) × Stake)
- WinRate
- — your realistic hit rate as a decimal
- Payout
- — broker payout as a decimal, e.g. 0.85
- Stake
- — amount risked per trade
- ROI
- — total profit ÷ starting balance, over the simulated trade count
Positive EV is necessary but not sufficient — variance decides whether you survive long enough to collect it. That is what the distribution in the simulator is for.
A real set of numbers
| Win rate | EV per trade | Median ROI | Worst 10% of runs | Runs ending in profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | −$0.75 | −15% | −32% | about 18% |
| 54% | −$0.01 | 0% | −20% | about 50% |
| 57% | +$0.55 | +11% | −8% | about 79% |
| 62% | +$1.47 | +29% | +6% | about 96% |
| 68% | +$2.58 | +52% | +25% | over 99% |
Below roughly 54% at an 85% payout, nothing else you do matters. Above 60%, even the unlucky runs stay near break-even. The whole game is moving that first column.
When to use it — and when not to
Use it when
- You are evaluating a new strategy or signal source before committing real money.
- You want to know how bad a normal bad month looks.
- You are choosing between a flat stake and a percentage stake plan.
- You need to sanity-check a claimed ROI from a signal seller.
Don't rely on it when
- You feed it an aspirational win rate. Garbage in, confident garbage out.
- Your strategy has correlated trades (several positions on the same pair at once) — the model assumes independence.
ROI simulator questions, answered
+What win rate do I need to be profitable on binary options?
At an 85% payout, breakeven is about 54.1%. At 80% it is 55.6%; at 92% it is 52.1%. Anything below the breakeven number produces a negative expected value no matter how you stake.
+Why does the simulator show losses at a winning win rate?
Because variance is real. Even a 60% strategy loses money over 100 trades a meaningful share of the time. Longer horizons shrink that share.
+Is Monte Carlo better than backtesting?
They answer different questions. A backtest tells you what happened once; Monte Carlo tells you what range of things could plausibly happen. Use the backtest to estimate the win rate, then simulate.
+How many trades before I know a strategy works?
Rarely fewer than 200, and 500 is safer. Below 100 trades the confidence interval on your win rate is so wide it barely constrains anything.
Put the numbers to work
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