Breakeven win rate calculator
The most important number in binary options: the win rate your payout demands before you make a single cent.
The single number that decides whether a strategy makes money or slowly drains the account.
Every payout point matters. Moving from a 75% asset to a 90% asset drops the win rate you need by about 5.1 points, which is often easier than improving your entries.
What the breakeven win rate calculator does
Binary options are asymmetric. Win and you make the payout percentage of your stake; lose and you lose 100% of it. That asymmetry means a 50% win rate is a steady, guaranteed loss — you need meaningfully more than half your trades to win just to stand still.
This calculator converts any payout into the exact breakeven win rate, then shows the edge and expected profit at whatever win rate you actually achieve. It reframes payout hunting: moving from an 80% payout asset to a 92% one lowers your required win rate by 3.5 points, which is often easier than improving your entries.
Check it before you take a trade on a low-payout asset. A 70% payout demands a 58.8% win rate, which very few strategies sustain.
The formula, explained
BreakevenWinRate = 1 ÷ (1 + Payout)
- Payout
- — broker payout as a decimal — 85% is 0.85
- Edge
- — your win rate minus the breakeven win rate
- EV per $100
- — (WinRate × Payout × 100) − ((1 − WinRate) × 100)
Payout is quoted per trade and varies by asset, expiry and time of day. Always use the payout displayed at the moment of entry, not the broker's advertised maximum.
A real set of numbers
| Payout | Breakeven win rate | Profit at 55% | Profit at 60% | Profit at 65% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 58.8% | −$85 | −$30 | +$25 |
| 80% | 55.6% | −$5 | +$80 | +$165 |
| 85% | 54.1% | +$18 | +$110 | +$203 |
| 90% | 52.6% | +$40 | +$140 | +$240 |
| 95% | 51.3% | +$63 | +$170 | +$278 |
The same 60% win rate loses money at a 70% payout and makes $140 per 100 trades at a 90% payout. Asset selection is a strategy decision, not a cosmetic one.
When to use it — and when not to
Use it when
- Choosing which asset or expiry to trade when payouts differ.
- Judging whether a signal service's claimed accuracy is actually profitable.
- Setting a minimum acceptable payout rule for your session.
- Deciding if a strategy is worth keeping.
Don't rely on it when
- You are ignoring ties/refunds — some brokers refund on an exact-close, which slightly lowers the requirement.
- You take payout from the marketing page rather than the trade ticket.
Breakeven win rate calculator questions, answered
+What win rate do I need at an 85% payout?
54.1% to break even. Anything above that is profit; below it is a slow, guaranteed loss regardless of stake plan.
+Why is 50% not breakeven?
Because the win pays less than the loss costs. Winning $85 on winners and losing $100 on losers means a coin flip loses $7.50 per $100 traded.
+Does a higher payout always mean a better trade?
Not always — brokers often raise payouts on volatile or illiquid OTC assets where your win rate drops more than the payout gains. Check both together in your journal.
+How does this apply to signals?
A signal advertised at '75% accuracy' is only profitable if the payout on the assets it signals clears breakeven. Run the numbers before subscribing to anything.
Put the numbers to work
Sizing is half the job — the other half is the entry. TradeFather's free signal engines call direction and expiry on Quotex, Pocket Option, Binomo, IQ Option, Olymp Trade and Expert Option, and every tool on this site is free with no subscription.